Thursday, July 3, 2008

The ECB hikes interest rates

So, let's think this through. The ECB hiked interest rates today to curb inflation. This will shrink demand, but it will also shrink supply. Unemployment should go up. Productivity should stagnate because fewer people are being incentivized to work.

When Ronald Reagan was President, his philosophy was "supply-side" economics. In other words, President Ronald Reagan would have decreased interest rates to stimulate excess supply, thus decreasing inflation.

I guess that I am disagreeing with the move by the ECB. The good thing about the ECB or the FED raising interest rates at this point in time, is that we will all be less well off and more miserable. Theoretically, anxiety, fear and misery will motivate us to go back to work more effectively, thus keeping inflation low. Then we will all be better off.

Is there a better way? Anxiety, fear and misery motivate me, but it also makes me mad. It definitely makes others mad. Anger is definitely a motivating force. Some exibit their rage on the roads by driving recklessly; in the factory they throw wrenches into the systems; some take drugs, gamble, overeat and cheat to overcome these circumstances. At some point we will all go back to work to overcome our problems, but at what price?

Fear, anxiety, anger and misery are definitely motivating forces. So is greed. So is military force.

Why not try a new world experiment; the experiment that began with the Declaration of Independence. The motivating forces of life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness, freedom, kindness, love, hope, faith and charity are potentially the greatest motivating forces in the Universe.

Consequences still need to follow societal goals, but why not make those goals positive and good, instead of miserable and anxious.

I don't know who the author is, but the story is told of an old Cheorkee Indian Chief who was teaching his children about life. He gathered his children around him, at the campfire one night, and said, "There is a terrible fight raging within each one of us; a fight between two wolves."

"One wolf is evil," said the Chief. "He is fear, anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, idleness, competition, superiority, selfishness and ego."

"The other wolf," said the Chief, "is good." "He is joy, peace, love, hope, sharing, serenity, synergy, teamwork, humility, kindness, benevolence, friendship, empathy, generosity, truth, work, compassion and faith."

The children listened carefully and thought about what the old Chief had said. One of the children raised his hand and asked, "Which wolf will win?"

"The one you feed," the old Chief replied.

As a world economy, let's try a new experiment: Let's feed hope, faith, love, charity, sharing, peace, joy, kindness, generosity, empathy, truth, work, humility, benevolence, serenity, synergy, teamwork and compassion.

Providing veterans with an education meets all of those criteria.

Lotteries to raise dollars for municipalities does not.

Veterans were more motivated to fight for their "comrad in arms" than for any other reason. "Naechstenliebe" is one of the most powerful forces in the Universe.

What about the Olympics. I love watching the best athletes in the world compete. The Olympics in China will highlight the best that the world has to offer. It provides a measuring stick for each of each to compare our efforts to others. Competition is good when it takes place in a spirit of hope, sharing and betterment for all of us. It is an opportunity for the world to be good to each other. It is bad when it causes evil.

Dear Chairman Bernanke:

I think that you are doing a wonderful job. It is my opinion that you should not be persuaded by the world stage to raise interest rates yet. Inflation can be evil. But, as you have eloquently explained, some inflation can be good. It can cover a multitude of sins, but it can also cause horrible disruptions to the well-being of people, as the world economy is currently experiencing. The inflation of the past several years has created a lot of evil; a lot of greed, fear, anxiety, and anger. By holding interest rates steady today, with a goal of keeping inflation at 1-2%, and by targeting the 10 year treasury rates at a level that will strengthen the dollar, hopefully the world economy will work together to provide good for everyone.

Thanks for your good work. Best wishes to you always.

Thanks to all of those who have gone before us as we again celebrate the Independence of this wonderful country.

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